No way.
I don’t believe for one millisecond that the BC Liberals are 13 points ahead in the Nanaimo byelection. Sorry, Mainstreet Polling, you’re nice folks, but relying on a sample size of 20 (20!) 18-34 year olds is not trustworthy enough for me.
This thing is a toss-up at best. The Orca poll (and a secret one done by the unions and shared with The Province’s Mike Smyth) shows the NDP ahead, but within the margin of error. It also shows BC Liberal voters are more excited to get out and vote.
Nanaimo is an NDP stronghold, but governments struggle in byelections. So: it’s a toss-up.
But I don’t want to sit on the fence. I want to make a prediction on this thing. And here it is:
Tony Harris is the next MLA for Nanaimo. Yes, the BC Liberals will somehow win on Wednesday.
Because it’s the craziest thing that can happen.
I’ve been operating under this premise for a while now: that the craziest thing that can happen in politics, will.
President Donald J. Trump? How could such a crazy thing happen?
Premier Christy Clark winning an election but falling in a confidence vote? Crazy.
An NDP Premier keeping Site C and LNG going? Crazy town.
A government rigging a vote to push proportional representation through but losing in a landslide. Craziness.
A Speaker promising we’d all puke when we saw how money was spent? Crazy, crazy, crazy.
So why wouldn’t Nanaimo follow suit? A BC Liberal victory would leave the Legislature at 43 BC Liberals, 40 NDP, 3 Green, and 1 Independent (the Speaker). That would lead to a number of tied 43-43 votes, with the Speaker breaking tie after tie after tie.
It would be crazy. Just crazy enough to happen.
So it probably will.
Jordan Bateman has a long history of public policy work, championing small business and fiscal responsibility. Currently the Vice President, Communications & Marketing for the Independent Contractors and Business Association (ICBA), Jordan also served six years as the B.C. Director of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation, and was a two-term Langley Township Councillor
